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Who is more hurt by Sino-US trade friction?  Limited impact on exports in the short term

2019-11-22 11:33:13

As two global economies, the trade friction between China the United States has aroused global attention. What is the impact of US trade protection measures on China's economy? Which industries will be affected? Yesterday, many experts interviewed by the Shanghai Securities News said that in recent years, China's economic growth's dependence on exports has declined, the US trade protection measures have limited impact on the overall economy. China's export market is diversified does depend on the market of a certain country, so the impact on exports in the short term is limited. However, certain domestic industries that account for a high proportion of exports to the United States may be affected.


Limited impact on exports in the short term

According to Xinhua News Agency, on March 22, Eastern Time, US President Trump signed a memorandum that based on the results of the "301 Investigation", large-scale tariffs will be imposed on goods imported China restrictions on Chinese companies' investment mergers in the United States. The scale of Chinese goods involved in taxation can reach US$60 billion.

According to data the Ministry of Commerce, in the past 40 years, the scale of trade between China the United States has increased by 232 times, reaching 580 billion U.S. dollars, two-way investment has exceeded 230 billion U.S. dollars.

What is the impact of the US's unilateral trade protectionist measures that may trigger a trade war on China's economy?

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with a reporter the Shanghai Securities News that in recent years, the pace of China's economic restructuring has accelerated, the dependence of economic growth on exports has decreased, which has limited impact on the overall economic situation in the short term. The direct impact of trade friction is that the development space of domestic related industries in the US market will be suppressed.

"In the short term, the impact on China's exports is limited." Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that China's export market is diversified does depend on the market of a certain country. Even if trade friction occurs, it can Expand other markets.

In an interview with a reporter Shanghai Securities News, she said that the export situation this year is relatively optimistic, the global economic recovery is the general trend, the growth of external demand has laid the market foundation for exports. "Trade frictions are just some partial conditions in the global economy, like'waves in the ocean, just a few occasional ones.'"

According to Zhao Ping's analysis, there are many types of China's exports to the United States, single product exports do account for a high market share in the United States, it is more likely to expand into other markets. For many American products, such as airplanes agricultural products, China is the largest single export market. "If there is a trade war, the impact on China will be far less than the United States."

The Ministry of Commerce responded quickly

In response to the measures taken by the United States, China responded quickly. In the early morning of March 23, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce issued two speeches on the official website: one was to make a statement on the US 301 investigation decision, once again reiterated that "China does want to fight a trade war, but is never afraid of a trade war. We are confident. , Have the ability to deal with any challenge" position. The second is to release a list of products that have been suspended for the 232 measures of US imports of steel aluminum products. According to 2017 statistics, US exports to China were about US$3 billion.

According to this list, which is currently seeking public opinion, the first part of a total of 120 taxes involves US$977 million in exports to China, including fresh fruits, dried fruits nut products, wine, modified ethanol, American ginseng, seamless steel pipes other products. , Plans to impose a 15% tariff. The second part has a total of 8 taxes, involving US$1.992 billion of US exports to China, including pork products, recycled aluminum other products. It is planned to impose a 25% tariff.

In Zhao Ping's view, the Ministry of Commerce's "$3 billion suspension of concession plan" against the United States is more a demonstration of China's determination to safeguard its legitimate rights interests. If the United States insists on going its own way, China still has big moves behind.

Chen Fuli, Director of the Department of Treaty Law of the Ministry of Commerce, also said yesterday that the US "301 Investigation" ignored WTO rules, ignored China's reality, ignored the mutually beneficial win-win nature of Sino-US economic trade relations. China has made full comprehensive preparations, will pay close attention to the progress carefully evaluate it. Once China's interests are damaged, China will resolutely take action.

Which industries will be affected?

At present, the United States has announced a list of products with increased tariffs, but traces can be found in the relevant trade data between China the United States.

According to data, in 2017, China's exports to the United States accounted for the largest proportion of electromechanical, audio video equipment their parts accessories, accounting for more than 46%; followed by furniture, toys, games miscellaneous products, accounting for 12.11%; textiles Raw materials textile products accounted for 9.89%.

In its research report, CITIC Securities pointed out that these industries that are highly dependent on U.S. exports may be affected significantly, focus on industries products subject to higher tariffs in trade disputes. The prices of these products may be large in the short term. rise.